The two weeks that EPS took fending off the Sengottaiyan rebellion has since become lost time for the AIADMK as that was also the time Vijay took to go all-out against Stalin and the DMK, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Tamil Nadu will elect a new government on April 23.
Will the DMK retain power? Can the AIADMK spring a surprise? And what about Vijay's TVK? A Ganesh Nadar surveys the election landscape a day after the Election Commission announced the poll schedule.
AIADMK leader Edappadi K Palaniswami is under pressure from his party as his unclear stand on the BJP alliance has brought back fears among party workers that the party may lose its identity, be forced into an unwanted coalition, and be taken over by the BJP later, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
After big win in Bihar, the BJP is likely to push harder in Tamil Nadu, where the DMK government and the uneasy BJP-AIADMK alliance are preparing for a tense election filled with seat-sharing fights, changing alliances, and the unpredictable entry of Vijay's TVK party, predicts N Sathiya Moorthy.
Amit Shah seemingly encouraging AIADMK dissident Sengottaiyan after party boss Edappadi K Palaniswami had removed his one-time mentor from all party posts has not gone down well with party cadres. They are now ready to buy Team EPS' theory that the BJP and Amit Shah are out to liquidate the AIADMK, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
TVK cadres are worried, the leadership looks weak, and the party is not fully prepared for the 2026 elections, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
If the TVK joins the NDA, there is every likelihood of the AIADMK winning an absolute majority in the 234 seat assembly and wanting to form a stand-alone government. In turn, it could mean that the BJP especially and the TVK equally so, will want to restrict the AIADMK's seat share closer to the cut-off figure, if only to ensure that EPS won't get the absolute majority that he desires (if the NDA won, that is) and will have to settle for a coalition government, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
The decision comes amid an assessment of potential security threats and follows standard protocol based on inputs from central security agencies.
'Karur could still impact Jana Nayagan's box-office success if Vijay and the TVK do not get their act together,' points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
The Deepa Thoon controversy, if not allowed to die a natural death, could take the election focus away from the anti-incumbency impacting the DMK and into the secular space. Stalin would love to have it that way, all over again, after the three past elections, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
Vijay, despite the loud message from his delayed arrival at the road-show/stampede venue, and more so his continued inaccessibility for fans-turned-cadres after graduating from a super-star to a political party leader with electoral ambitions, refuses to change. Or, so it seems, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Vijay, with his chief ministerial ambitions, is a one-man army, at least as of now, and his campaign team considers him omnipresent. He has to be present in all districts, if not all constituencies at the same time, as there is no second-line leader or platform speaker in the party, who can draw crowds, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
'What is worrying other parties is those 10-11 year olds who come for his meetings will cross 18 in the next election. And they will vote for him, and then his vote bank will double.' 'In that case, he will be a very serious player! This is the real scare for other political parties.'
Vijay is counting on what was once proclaimed as his last filmi outing, Jana Nayagan, or 'People's Hero', to do the trick for him, when it releases on January 9, 2026, only months before the assembly poll, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Successive elections since 2019 have proved that the Modi charisma and Shah's strategy does not work in Tamil Nadu. Now, they have to see next year if the DMK is capable of losing, whether to an existing NDA alliance or an expanded version, if one becomes necessary and possible!, explains N Sathiya Moorthy.
EPS' real test will commence with a decision whether or not to patch up with OPS and on what terms -- and then, to decide whether or not to have the BJP for an electoral ally, come 2024, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Without strategising together, Jayalalithaa's successor, Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami, and M Karunanidhi's son-cum-successor, M K Stalin, have used tough-talking on seat-sharing with allies, to replace charisma that they purportedly lacked, during the run-up to the assembly polls scheduled for April 6, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The Supreme Court on Thursday upheld a Madras high court order allowing Edappadi K Palaniswami to continue as interim general secretary of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, establishing his position as the single, supreme leader of the party.
Asserting that the dharma yudham is on, Panneerselvam, popularly known as OPS said he and his followers would go to the people to seek justice.
They teamed up with a former AIADMK leader KC Palanisami and appealed to the AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami and Panneerselvam to merge their factions and strive for the united AIADMK's victory in the 2026 assembly election.
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) interim general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) and ousted party leader O Panneerselvam on Tuesday moved the Madras high court against the sealing of the party headquarters by the Tamil Nadu government following violence there on July 11.
The sub-quota scheme may now lead to a ganging up of non-Vanniyars in individual constituencies against the Vanniyars just as in the past, such ganging up against SC-ST candidates was seen in the non-quota constituencies, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Ask rediffGURU and PF expert Milind Vadjikar your insurance, stocks, mutual fund and personal finance-related questions.
The BJP's strategy seem to be to wean away allies from the Congress, in Dravidian Tamil Nadu, and maybe later in UP, Bihar and elsewhere, though in slow doses, but without wooing them into a new alliance. The idea seems to be only to weaken the INDIA bloc from within -- and leaving it at that, notes N Sathiya Moorthy.
From the voter-level, traditionally anti-BJP, anti-Hindutva minorities and other secular voters would have an option, especially in the face of the mounting anti-incumbency against the ruling party -- as it happened in the 2001 assembly polls, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
There is nothing to suggest that the DMK stands to gain from the AIADMK split nor is there anything indicative of an extraordinary advantage for the BJP, independently or in the company of the AIADMK, explains N Sathiya Moorthy.
Even as Srini Pallia, a Wipro veteran, is set to take charge as the chief executive officer (CEO) of the company, analysts expect the stock's underperformance to continue in the near-future. This, they believe, will be on the back of likely loss of market share, and difficult business environment. "We expect Wipro to underperform peers on growth once again in FY25 as channel checks and media reports suggest Wipro is losing share with select clients across multiple verticals.
The court rejected all petitions, including that against the conduct of the party's General Secretary election.
The Wall Street major Morgan Stanley has upgraded India to "standout overweight" citing that the relative economic and earnings growth is improving and the macro-stability setup looks sufficient to withstand the higher real rate environment. "India remains standout overweight. "We increase our overweight stance on Indian equities and as our most-preferred emerging market," the brokerage said in a note on Friday.
Indications are that the DMK combine will win more seats than the AIADMK and BJP, but is facing a tough fight in about half a dozen from the rest, predicts N Sathiya Moorthy of the electoral contest in Tamil Nadu.
A new era of Indian equity market outperformance compared to China "appears to be dawning", according to Morgan Stanley. The firm has upgraded India to overweight in its Asia Pacific-excluding Japan (APxJ) list, making it their most preferred market not only in the region but also in the global emerging market (GEM) pack. India now holds the top position in this category, with an overweight of 75 basis points, a significant increase from nil previously.
Neither the ruling DMK nor the fractured AIADMK Opposition anticipated that an assembly by-election would put them both to test, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
The BJP has nothing to lose after a point. For the DMK it is a difficult choice, as it would not want to give too much of space to a 'national party' lest the 'Dravidian duel' of the past decades should be lost forever, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
With both the factions pledging their support, the BJP believes that the natural corollary is for them to now merge and retain the two-leaves election symbol, a view shared by the prime minister as well.
'You have to fight your own battles and I fought mine.'
For now, the DMK can be expected to sound the bugle for Opposition unity at the national level, predicts N Sathiya Moorthy.
The AIADMK is convinced that the BJP will remain an electoral burden for a long time to come, beginning the Lok Sabha polls next year, reveals N Sathiya Moorthy.
'As China's reopening euphoria fizzled out on the back of some disappointing economic data, we saw inflows coming back to India with full force in the past 3-4 months.'
'My wife, family members as well as members of the workers will be trustees.' 'The trust will take all decisions -- no family member can individually take any decision.'
On the face of it, the first round has gone to Edappadi K Palaniswami. Not only has he been named chief ministerial candidate, that too by his one-time bete noire Panneerselvam, he also gets one member more in the steering committee than OPS. He can now hope to wean away one or more members of the OPS team in the steering committee just as he had done with other leaders in the latter's camp, post-reunification. That was also OPS's concern, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
© 2026 Rediff.com - Advertise with us - Disclaimer - Privacy Policy - Sitemap - Feedback - About us - Terms of use - Grievances